🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Made $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. An individual made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Sudden Shift in Wagers Wagers on Polymarket, an online prediction market, that the leader would be out of power by the end of January surged in the period preceding President Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the president had been apprehended. A single trader, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on Venezuela, earned over $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Platform data shows that traders estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. Yet the market's assessment had increased to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the morning of January 3rd, suggesting a rapid movement in betting activity right before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," commented an industry expert. Several of other platform users also made tens of thousands of dollars from similar wagers. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A new rule put forward on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from placing bets on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in recent years, with participants able to bet on everything from elections to political events. The industry encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the traditional financial markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market arena. An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."